AUD Healthy position against powerhouse currencies
Tuesday, 29 April 2008
The Australian Dollar had another good week last week with a collection of strong
data confirming the Aussies healthy position against powerhouse currencies,
like the Pound and the Dollar.
Key data releases included the producer price index which grew by 1.9% for
the first quarter, with a year on year growth of 4.8%. Wednesday saw Consumer
Price Index (a key inflation forecast) estimate at 1.3% for the first Quarter
and annualised at 4.2% making inflation the highest level in 17 years. With
interest rates at a 12 year high the market has adjusted its forecast and
is now expecting a sustained period of unchanged interest rates in Australia.
Carry trades also played an important part last week with improvement in global
risk appetite earlier in the week resulting in the Aussie Dollar reaching a
record high against the US Dollar. However, by the end of the week the Aussie
Dollar had retreated slightly as carry trades experienced some profit taking
and overall the US Dollar strengthened.
The short and the long term view of GBP/AUD remains unchanged with the Aussie
expected to continue to make gains against the pound. Buoyant commodity prices
and growth in carry trades are expected to continue to support the Australian
Dollar whilst Sterling continues to struggle with the fall out of the credit
crisis posting very poor housing figures and expected interest rate cuts.
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