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CAD Inflation data has surged

Wednesday, 30 July 2008

Disappointing economic data has weekend the Loonie against the GBP for the second consecutive week. Retail sales figures fell below analysts bullish forecast and the CAD tumbled as a result. Inflation data has surged above the BoC’s 1-3% target for the first time since September 2005, however more importantly core inflation, which stripes away volatile items like gasoline and food, remained unchanged. This is in line with BoC’s projection that inflation would peak at 4.3%, but would remain in check without any monetary tightening. So despite inflation tipping over the BoC’s target, these inflation figures are encouraging and could even allow the BoC to cut rates if required. However analysts say it is unlikely that they will cut rates before the end of the year. The CAD/GBP cross is likely to remain range bound between 2.05 and 1.98 in the short term.

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