Foreign Currency Exchange

Last week saw the GBP/USD cross continue to deteriorate, dropping below the significant resistance point of 1.50 on Wednesday afternoon, despite starting the week at almost 1.59. We saw a low of 1.4550, before Asian trading showed some support for the Pound early on Monday morning, which continued up to the 1.50 mark, where we have seen a great deal of resistance as the mid-market struggles to break through.

This week sees few key data releases, with inflation data coming from both sides of the Atlantic likely to show a slight reduction in the flash rate, although this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the cross. We may see the largest swing following the release of the Bank of England minutes from this month’s meeting, where interest rates were cut by 1.5%. These are likely to reveal more about the Monetary Policy Committee’s reasoning behind the unprecedented cut, and the likelihood of further rate cuts before Christmas. We also see minutes from the Federal Reserve, although their 0.5% cut was wholly expected and unremarkable, hence the markets are unlikely to see a significant reaction.

This week we will see whether the mighty Dollar will continue its march over the weak Pound, or whether the Pound can sustain its recent rally and move back towards the 1.6 mark. Although talk of parity is premature, the GBP/USD cross is at a 7-year low, and many analysts are predicting a move into the low 1.40s. Although Dollar buyers may rue not purchasing their currency at a higher level, it may be advisable to secure currency as soon as possible to prevent any further slides.