Foreign Currency Exchange

Last week saw a volatile week of trading for the cable, dominated by the on/off situation around the $700bn government bail out. When the deal was first rejected by the House of Representatives, the dollar weakened back to 1.84. The situation started to reverse when the revised bill was passed by the Senate on Wednesday, with the Dollar recovering massive strength after the bill passed its second reading in the House of Representatives. Cable trading on Monday began in the 1.75s as a result.

Looking into the week ahead, we expect to see the dollar continue to strengthen as the full effect of the bailout deal is felt around the world. In terms of significant events, Tuesday evening sees the minutes from the US Federal Reserve meeting of 23 September which will indicate the likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting. Thursday sees the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting to examine our own interest rates. It is expected that the result of this meeting will be a very close vote between a 0.25 point cut, and a hold at 5%. A cut is likely to weigh heavily on Sterling, and the rate could slide into the 1.60s.

It is also worth noting that some analysts believe there has been significant overbuying of the US Dollar as hedge fund managers moved away from high-risk investments. As a result, we may see a Dollar sell-off as calmer waters approach, causing some weakness in the currency. For those looking to sell USD and buy Sterling, it may be advisable to cash out while the market remains in the 1.70s and insure your assets against any Dollar weakness. For Dollar buyers, you may want to consider using currency options, to capture the market at a high. Speak to your account manager at EMYC for more details.