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Will Brown dump the Pound in favour of the Euro?

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GBP-USD interest rate cutting

Wednesday, 30 July 2008

Last week saw a rebound of the Dollar against sterling based on several critical factors. The first major factor was centred on the controversy that had plummeted the Dollar through the two to the pound mark in the previous week; the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debacle. News therefore that a rescue package, with positive aspects for all concerned, was imminent last week, gave the dollar much needed strength. Indeed a steep plummet in oil prices was an important player in the dollar strength as well, combined with some further positive economic data and positive sentiment from economists.

However, this sentiment is not necessarily going to save the dollar in the long run. Most of the data that is released stateside is resoundingly bearish and expected to continue to be so for some time. The only decent news for the cable pairing is that the British economy is apparently set to slow down rapidly as the Bank of England appears to be behind its interest rate cutting cycle which will surely have to materialise soon. If this does happen, and the Fed is forced to hike interest rates again because of high inflationary pressures then we could see the greenback go through a period of strengthening against the pound. Therefore with levels still extremely attractive for UK buyers of the Dollar, forward contracts are looking a particularly clever option in this climate.

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