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GBP-USD volatile USD with the currency weakening

Monday, 21 July 2008

Last week we saw a volatile USD with the currency weakening to 2.0148 against the pound caused by the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac mortgage saga. However we did see some strength towards the latter part of the week due to crude oil prices falling more than 11% over the past few days, this strengthened the dollar to 1.9802 against the pound.

This is a big week for sterling with 3 key reports being published. The first being Rightmove’s house price index which has shown a -2% decline YOY. Also out this week is the retail sales index which is predicted to show a negative MOM growth and a slow down by 50% on the YOY growth. As well as this the GDP YOY figures which are published on Friday are expected to announce a 1.6% growth, compared to last year’s growth of 2.6%. Minutes from the Bank of England are also due midweek where they are expected to keep interest rates on hold. The USD has a quieter week ahead with the exception of several key publications including a consumer confidence report and new home sale figures being published towards the latter part of the week which may weaken the dollar.

This week it is expected that sterling will weaken slightly against the dollar but due to some negative data from the US it is expected that the pound will regain some ground by the weekend.

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