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NZD recession

Tuesday, 15 July 2008

Last week was a bad week for the kiwi, being weaker against a basket of currencies. This was due to weak business confidence and negative comments coming from the treasury, reporting that the domestic economy may already be in recession, adding to a negative outlook delivered from the RBNZ earlier in the month.
Consumer prices are the only major data release out this week, with a small increase expected, which should make it harder for the RBNZ to cut rates. However with the state of the economy we still expect that the RBNZ will be looking to make a rate cut at the end of the month (24th July).
The outlook for the NZD is not looking good, however it is still expected that the GBP/NZD cross will remain rangebound between 2.5830 and 2.6386 as the UK economy appears to be in the same position.

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